A Day At The Casino
I don’t know how many mathematicians play the lottery or go to vegas to feed the slot machines, but I have a good feeling it’s not that many. I believe the reason for that is mathematicians know how to play the odds. They also probably know that the games at the casinos are rigged in favor of the house. That must be why they say, the house never loses, because regardless of how much money an individual player walks away with, the house always ends up with more.
On the other hand, most of the lottery winners that we know or hear about about, are the ones who don’t pay any attention to these odds. It’s too many numbers to make any sense of, and besides they heard about someone whose life changed because they played the odds and won. That must be why they also say, “lucky people don’t win the lottery, lottery players win the lottery.”
On December 4th someone will be elected President of The Gambia. That’s the good news. Here is the bad news. The game is rigged, and it’s not hard to figure out in whose favor.
It’s too late to start pretending now that we didn’t see people tinkering with the equipment since the end of the dictatorship. None of it was done behind the scenes, and depending on who was favored by the tinkering, we either applaud the move or grumble in our corners. Well here comes the messy soup that’s been cooking this whole time. We are all complicit.
Adama Barrow rode to power on a promise that he would oversee a system change, and go about his business after 3 years. Well we all know how that turned out. We still have the same constitution that Barrow inherited from Jammeh. Jammeh’s people are still in charge of the Economy, Defense and Foreign Affairs. Well, a funny thing happened to the constitution along the way. The president and his handlers changed the constitution to make room for Mr Ousainou Darboe to be his Vice President. More on that later and back to all the random people running for President.
From outside looking in, it would seem that there is a bunch of crazy people with no chance running, but there is a certain genius to the whole madness. “You gotta be in, to win it” is the motto in any gambling hall. You don’t play, you don’t win. These crazy looking people are playing the odds.
Person #1. Adama Barrow.
An unpopular president with a good supporting cast of loser politicians from almost every party. His endorsements came from the who is who of Gambia’s corrupt, ignorant and shameless politicians.
Person #2. Mr Ousainou Darboe.
A popular leader of United Democratic Party, who according to the constitution is too old to legally contest, but I don’t know who is going to deliver that news to almost half of the population. There is a good chance that IEC will find a way around it, the same way they ignored the fact that their own chairman is legally past his mandate.
Person #3 is Mr Halifa Sallah.
He is a perfectly good candidate that lost to Adama Barrow in 2016, simply because his base is way too small.
Dr Ceesay and Essa Faal are 2 relatively young and educated candidates hoping to change the way the game is played. They are going to need more than 30 days to do that, so I think they are here hoping that everyone gets disqualified on a technicality.
And then there is wagon full of players that nobody seems to care about, but they too are playing for a commodity that still holds value in our country; Name recognition. And then there is Kandeh. He is obviously one of Yahya Jammeh’s sometimes unwanted children. We already know his name, but he’s also playing for something.
The whole country spent the last 5 years pretending that we’re not living under the laws that held up a dictatorship for 22 years. I guess the rules didn’t bother anyone enough to change them, so it’s time to play a critical game under the same old rules. There was a time when the UDP held the super majority in the parliament, with an eager president on their side to take a hatchet to Jammeh’s laws, but no one bothered to make it a priority then, so here we are.
In less than 30 days Barrow’s new life could come to an end. All his lies, all the connivance, all the broken promises, and all the people he offended, could all come back to bite him. An ordinary existence could be on the other side of the door for him, so it’s anyone’s guess how far him and his mew friends would be willing to go to stave off the Jackals waiting to take a bite. After getting away with so much, Barrow must be feeling invincible. And just like a gambler with a hot hand, it’ll be hard to tell him that his luck may be running out. Gambling addicts are also known for putting down their last dime, and losing it before they walk away from the table.
By the way, unless a spaceship dropped off a truck load of brave new warriors in our country, no particular scenario is going to move any significant portion of the population to do anything extraordinary. Sir Dawda’s ouster didn’t move the people to get out there and do something. Jammeh got forced out without a broken window. Barrow himself was sworn into the presidency in a foreign country, because not enough people had his back. Mr Darboe was illegally arrested and imprisoned, but the crowds at his trials were a tiny fraction of the one we saw at his last rally. I think the politicians understand that their supporters may claim to love them, but not enough to put themselves in harm’s way for them. So all the new brave people out there, we hear you but if you didn’t recently get dropped off by aliens, then we know that you’re not about that life. Back to the casino.
“The house always wins.” The house services the machines, and the house pays the winners. Who is the house? The house picks the IEC commissioners. The house picks the Police Commissioner. The house signs an agreement with foreign nations to keep their troops in our country during our elections. Adama Barrow is the house. I’m not in the business of predicting who wins elections, so I am not saying that he will win this election, but who else remembers Gambian security officials loading a plane for a disgraced dictator? Losers don’t get invited to the medal ceremony. It was Jammeh who turned down the sitting President’s invitation to take the stage. Help me take that apart Mr I prefer Barrow over Darbo.
In the event that some dim-wit tries to tell you that Mr Ousainou Darboe should be disqualified for any reason, I hope they get reminded that the door he used to become Vice President and Foreign minister, were never closed when he left. If we think Barrow cannot win because of his low IQ, then we have not being paying attention. All the others nibbling around the edges, are all angling for an advantage for themselves. After all it’s anyone’s game to win.
In a game where nobody can predict the outcome, it seems like everyone is counting on luck.
At the end of the day, not too many smart people gamble, so there is a always a good chance that the winner is going to be someone who doesn’t pay close attention to the odds, but nonetheless plays the game. December 4th is going to be an interesting day at the casino.
